As Rwanda's Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Olivier Nduhungirehe, prepares to meet South African counterpart Ronald Lamola in Pretoria on Wednesday, June 17, analysts say the discussions could mark an important step in efforts to normalise relations between the two countries.

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The meeting comes amid renewed diplomatic engagement between Kigali and Pretoria, with the two ministers&039; discussions expected to focus on trade, tourism, education, health, and security cooperation.

Experts say the visit offers an opportunity to address longstanding political and security concerns that have strained relations while building on a history of cooperation that had flourished in the years after the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi.

According to South African veteran journalist and political analyst Sophie Mokoena, relations between the two countries were particularly strong after South Africa's transition to democracy in 1994.

She said Pretoria played an important role in supporting Rwanda's post-Genocide reconstruction, especially through education and skills development.

"Many Rwandans came to South Africa to study and acquire skills needed to rebuild their country," Mokoena told The New Times.

She noted that the two countries enjoyed cordial relations during the administrations of Presidents Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki.

For Joseph Mutaboba, a former ambassador, Rwanda-South Africa relations in the years after the Genocide were built on mutual respect and shared aspirations for development.

"I am one of the early witnesses of the good relationships between the two nations," Mutaboba said. "From 1999 to around 2010 both countries and people were able to work together in harmony."

Mutaboba recalled that while serving as Rwanda's ambassador to the United Nations and later as permanent secretary at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he witnessed close collaboration between officials from both countries, including efforts to establish bilateral cooperation agreements.

He said South Africa's vision of an "African Renaissance" resonated with Rwanda's focus on reconstruction, good governance, and development.

Joseph Nsengimana, Rwanda's former ambassador to Ethiopia and Permanent Representative to the African Union, also pointed to the strong relationship that existed under Mandela's leadership.

"The relationship between Rwanda and South Africa was very good after the Genocide. Mandela had a clear vision for Africa and wanted countries to unite and work together," he said.

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How political tensions emerged

The strong ties, however, began to weaken during the administration of former South African President Jacob Zuma, following the arrival in South Africa of Rwandan fugitives and individuals behind armed groups hostlile to the Rwandan government.

The controversy surrounding the death of one of these individuals linked to the RNC, a Rwandan sanctioned armed group, became the first major source of friction in the two countries' diplomatic relations.

According to Mokoena, South Africa viewed the incidents as a security concern that reflected negatively on the country.

"It portrays South Africa as a country where there's no security,'" she said.

On the other hand, Mokoena noted that Rwanda maintained that some individuals based in South Africa included perpetrators of the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi and people seeking to destabilise its security.

Amb. Nsengimana argued that Kigali's concerns extended beyond Pretoria's granting of asylum, saying some exiled figures continued activities hostile to Rwanda through armed groups.

He noted that while international law permits countries to grant asylum, refugees are not allowed to engage in activities that threaten the security of another state.

The fallout led to South Africa's recall of its ambassador to Rwanda and expulsion of Rwandan diplomats in Pretoria, which further complicated bilateral relations.

According to Mokoena, tensions also affected the movement of people between the two countries.

"The issue of visas has been a solid one. The tension led to the issuance of visas to Rwandans being put on hold, and that led to problems of movement between Rwanda and South Africa," she said.

Amb. Mutaboba said the deterioration in ties came at a significant cost.

"Severing relations between South Africa and Rwanda certainly had a toll on our cooperation, with limited access to investment, capital markets, educational facilities and many more," he said.

DR Congo conflict added another fault line

The experts said that in recent years , Kigali and Pretoria's differences over the conflict in eastern DR Congo created a second major source of friction, even as the countries had started the process of normalisation.

Mokoena said relations that had begun to show signs of improvement were once again tested by South Africa&039;s involvement in the SADC military mission to DR Congo at a time Kinshasa's opinion was hostile to Kigali.

"South Africa's participation in DR Congo and the SADC contingent again strained relations that were beginning to improve," she said.

Nsengimana said tensions worsened after Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi strengthened cooperation with the FDLR, a militia formed by remnants of perpetrators of the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi and included the South Africa-led SADC forces in his coalition fighting the AFC/M23 rebel movement.

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He noted that the FDLR has for years persecuted Congolese Tutsi communities in eastern DR Congo while maintaining ambitions of destabilising Rwanda.

According to Nsengimana, repeated statements by Tshisekedi about his intention to topple the Rwandan government, coupled with cooperation between Congolese armed forces and the FDLR, heightened Kigali's security concerns about the conflict that was taking place just across the border.

"It got worse when South Africa sent its troops to DR Congo [in December 2023] and joined forces with militias such as the FDLR, mercenaries and forces of other countries that have decided to cooperate with Tshisekedi," he said.

Ramaphosa's visit to Kigali

A possible thaw in relations emerged in April 2024 when South African President Cyril Ramaphosa travelled to Kigali to participate in the 30th commemoration of the Genocide against the Tutsi.

Mokoena said the visit gave Ramaphosa and President Paul Kagame an opportunity to discuss bilateral concerns and generated optimism that ties could improve.

"There was hope that after that meeting the two countries would improve relations," she said.

However, she noted that tensions linked to the conflict in eastern DR Congo disrupted the momentum that had emerged following the meeting.

Nsengimana said the goodwill generated by the Ramaphosa's visit did not translate into concrete progress.

"There was a need for a political solution to the relationship between the two countries, but it did not happen. The relationship remained strained," he said.

A fresh start?

For the analysts, Wednesday's ministerial talks could offer another chance to revive the process of normalising ties and unlock cooperation that has suffered for over 15 years.

Nsengimana said the meeting reflects the willingness of the leadership in both countries to improve relations and facilitate cooperation in security, education, trade and other sectors.

Mutaboba said stronger ties between Kigali and Pretoria are necessary at a time when Africa requires greater leadership and transformation.

"Interests of our people and countries need to be protected and respected, particularly in this era. Africa needs more leadership and transformation spearheaded by Rwanda and Mandela's and Mbeki's South Africa," he said.

Mokoena said the foreign ministers' meeting would provide an opportunity for both sides to candidly address their concerns before reporting back to Presidents Kagame and Ramaphosa.

"Maybe this is the start of the most important dialogue between South Africa and Rwanda," Mokoena said, adding that leaders would need to put the interests of the people of the two countries at the centre of the engagements.