Kabuye Sugar Works, Rwanda’s only major sugar producer, has increased output over the past three seasons, but recurring floods in sugarcane fields continue to prevent the factory from reaching its full production capacity and reducing the country’s dependence on imports.

The company, owned by Madhvani Group Rwanda, produced 5,907 tonnes of sugar in the 2023/2024 season, rising to 9,640 tonnes in 2024/2025 and 10,014 tonnes in 2025/2026, according to Joel Uwizeye Rwibasira, the Director of Corporate Affairs at Madhvani Group Rwanda.

Despite the improvement, production remains well below the factory’s installed capacity of 17,000 tonnes per year, largely because floods repeatedly disrupt cane harvesting.

"Last year, production was higher due to fewer floods in sugarcane fields and 320 crushing days. Normally, we do less because floods disrupt harvesting,” Rwibasira said.

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The challenge highlights a key constraint in efforts to boost local sugar production at a time when imports have fallen sharply and prices remain high for consumers and industries.

Kabuye’s current output covers only a small fraction of national demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imported sugar.

The company plans to expand production through a new plant expected to produce up to 60,000 tonnes annually, alongside green energy and ethanol production. However, flood risk remains central to the expansion strategy.

"We are still waiting for the Rwanda Development Board to secure land for expansion. We are considering areas such as Nyagatare that are less prone to flooding,” Rwibasira said.

The search for less flood-prone land reflects the extent to which climate-related disruptions are shaping the future of domestic sugar production.

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Sugar market shifts

The production constraints come as the domestic sugar market undergoes major shifts. Imports fell in 2025 despite continued demand from sectors such as baking, beverages and food processing.

Rwanda imported 195,610 tonnes of sugar valued at $145 million (approximately Rwf212 billion) in 2025, down from 308,000 tonnes worth $238 million (approximately Rwf348 billion) in 2024, according to data from the Ministry of Trade and Industry.

The imports include raw sugar for industrial refining, sugar used in beverage and food manufacturing, and refined sugar for household consumption.

Minister of Trade and Industry Prudence Sebahizi attributed the decline to changes in demand and increased domestic production.

"The decrease in imports can be attributed to a drop in refined sugar consumption locally, coupled with increased domestic production,” he said.

Sebahizi also noted a decline in re-exports, particularly raw sugar destined for further processing in the region.

"This shift reflects market adjustments and changing consumer preferences, rather than any new policy measures,” he added.

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The drop in 2025 followed a 24 per cent increase in imports in 2024, when Rwanda imported 308,000 tonnes worth $238 million, up from $192 million in 2023.

For businesses that rely heavily on sugar, the market changes have been difficult. In Nyamata Sector, Bugesera District, baker Ahmed Nkengurutse said rising prices have directly affected production.

"Last year a kilogramme of sugar would retail at Rwf1,300. It has since increased to about Rwf1,800,” he said. "The increase has forced us to reduce production as costs went up while customers were not ready to adjust.”

He said a loaf of bread that previously sold at Rwf1,000 now goes for at least Rwf1,300.

"We have been adjusting prices over time, but customers were not understanding. We even tried reducing sugar in bread, but they did not like the change.”

According to Nkengurutse, his bakery’s production has dropped by about 50 per cent.

"At the end of 2024, we were producing about 100 breads per day. Now we only sell around 50,” he said, adding that sugar purchases have also been reduced from 50-kilogramme bags to about 25-kilogramme at a time.