Traffic jams are becoming an increasingly problematic issue in Kigali. During rush hour, drivers on many roads are travelling at very low speeds. Even a minor incident along the way can make a journey seem endless. And yet, the number of vehicles on the road is still growing rapidly.

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According to the latest statistics published by Rwanda Revenue Authority (RRA), the number of four-wheelers has grown by 7.4% per year nationally since 2020, while the number of motorcycles has grown by 10.1% and the number of trucks and buses by 12.1%. At these rates, the number of motorcycles and cars on the country's roads will double by 2033. Most of these vehicles will contribute to the daily traffic jams in Kigali, the beating heart of the country's economy.

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This increase in vehicles is in line with the current mindset that owning a car is a sign of social success and individual freedom. But is such an increase possible on the streets of the Rwandan capital? Wouldn't traffic jams become a nightmare for its inhabitants, especially motorists?

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The motorisation rate in Kigali remains below 200 vehicles (including motorcycles) per 1,000 inhabitants. To predict what the situation might be like in 10 years' time, it is useful to look at how other cities around the world have adapted to this rapid increase in household motorisation. In most cases, public authorities have sought to adapt cities for cars, recognising the economic benefits of car industry development. In response to traffic congestion, they have widened roads, built flyovers and multi-storey car parks, and so on. However, most developed cities have quickly questioned this costly strategy.

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Building extensive road infrastructure encourages car use: while bank loans and second-hand cars become more accessible to the growing middle-class, households and businesses move to the outskirts of the city where land is cheaper. Consequently, the number of car journeys increases rapidly, as well as the length of the trips. In this 'Business As Usual' (BAU) scenario, the new road infrastructures become saturated again much faster than expected.

Some rich cities are allowing themselves to continue this headlong rush, cultivating a dependence on cars that exacerbates urban sprawl even further. However, in light of the environmental (air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions), social (increased inequality and road accidents) and economic (the burden of household motorisation on the trade balance and the cost of building and maintaining road infrastructures) impacts, other cities are rapidly revising their strategy so that public investment responds to the need to move people, rather than a desire to move cars.

This type of public policy is more complex to implement and must place public transport as a backbone of the urban system so that it is easy and efficient for everyone to use. It must also encourage transit-oriented development and the use of walking and cycling.

This multimodal approach is set out in the updated 2018 Kigali Transport Master Plan, which envisages a 62-kilometer Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) network by 2050. This scenario is essential for improving living conditions and making Kigali more attractive, setting an example for other African cities in the process.

However, for this to be implemented, public transport must be prioritised on the roads and in budget allocation.

Investments in flyovers at key intersections risk reinforcing a business-as-usual trajectory. As seen elsewhere, congestion would simply reappear at other bottlenecks, leading once again to declining travel speeds.

To avoid a scenario in which public authorities and households take on heavy debt only to end up moving more slowly than bicycles during peak hours, significant investment is needed in public transport and the promotion of electric bicycles as an alternative means of transport. It is both a way of ensuring individual freedom of movement and a matter of economic efficiency.

Julien Allaire is the Director of International Operations at Transitec Consulting Engineers.