Where is the "transatlantic relationship” headed? What is happening in the world right now is not just concerning—it is alarming and potentially dangerous. The fact that the world has changed is indisputable. Many leaders and experts have acknowledged it. Yet, just how dangerous it has become is a matter of intense debate, depending on which side of the discussion you align with.

As we say in Rwanda, every global citizen is holding the "right-side breast” (bafashe iry’iburyo)—or, as the English would put it, holding our hearts in our hands. The world has shifted so dramatically that even the most gifted analysts struggle to make sense of it. Keeping pace with this evolving new world order, let alone predicting where it is headed, has become incredibly challenging.

What has struck me most is the relationship between Europe and the United States—specifically, the tectonic shifts in the so-called "transatlantic partnership.” What impact would a fracturing Europe-U.S. alliance have on the rest of the world?

For over 26 years, I have lived, worked, and interacted with both Europe and the U.S. I have repeatedly heard politicians from both sides speak of "standing shoulder to shoulder,” "maintaining a strong transatlantic partnership,” and "facing the world together as one.” Whenever the U.S. asked Europe to jump, Europe would ask, "How high?” I never imagined seeing anything different in my lifetime—I thought the two continents were forever joined at the hip by history.

However, the relationship has come under significant strain. While Europe and the U.S. remain security allies on paper through NATO, deep divisions have emerged over defence spending, trade disputes, and geopolitical strategies. What was once a steadfast "shoulder-to-shoulder” alignment now looks anything but. The transatlantic bond that shaped some of the most epochal developments in modern history is clearly under pressure.

One defining moment came when the U.S., historically a bedrock of NATO, reportedly threatened to take Greenland—a territory of NATO member Denmark. Europeans dubbed it the "Greenland Grab,” and in response, amassed troops on the island in anticipation of a possible U.S. move. The event didn’t escalate militarily, but the damage to the transatlantic friendship was unmistakable.

Other incidents have further strained the relationship. The U.S.’s extrajudicial seizure of Venezuela’s president and his wife drew quiet grumbles from Europe. Later, during the Iran conflict, Europe openly resisted immediate involvement despite U.S. appeals. European leaders seemed to see the conflict as "his war,” asking themselves why they should get embroiled. Even U.S. calls for support in securing the Strait of Hormuz—critical for global trade—have largely gone unanswered.

So, the question arises: Is Europe turning its back on the U.S.? If so, what does that mean for the rest of the world? And can this fallout be reversed?

As always, my guess is as good as yours.

Ignatius Mugabo is a keen observer of global affairs.