Weeks before the March–May rains are expected to peak, Jeannette Uwimana is already preparing her potato fields in Burera District. In Rwanda’s high-risk areas, farmers and local authorities are racing to prepare for heavy rains forecast to bring floods, landslides and lightning, drawing on past disasters to reduce losses this season.

"We follow the weather forecasts on the radio very closely,” she said. "By late February or early March, we make sure planting is done early so crops are strong before the heaviest rains arrive.”

For farmers on Burera’s steep slopes, preparation goes beyond planting. Uwimana says erosion control is just as important as seed choice. Trenches are dug to trap runoff, while elephant grass and trees are planted along embankments to stabilise the soil.

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"When the rains are heavy, the mountainsides can give way,” she said. "Landslides can wash away everything, including the bamboo stakes we use for beans. It’s a constant struggle, but at least we know the rains are coming and we’re preparing.”

Uwimana grows Kinigi and Ndamira potato varieties and is testing a new one, Cyerekezo, under a pilot programme seeking crops that can better withstand intense rainfall.

Lessons from past disasters

Further west in Nyamasheke District, memories of past disasters remain vivid for Philomene Nyiramana.

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"In 2024, a neighbour lost everything,” she recalled. "A landslide swept away their house, banana plantation and all the crops in the valley. They were living in a high-risk area and had to relocate.”

The losses pushed the family into poverty, forcing them to rent after losing both land and shelter.

"My mother-in-law’s house alone was worth more than Rwf10 million, and the plantation about Rwf2 million. It was a huge blow,” she said, adding that the experience has encouraged many residents to heed advice to move away from unstable slopes.

Farming through relentless rain

In Nyaruguru District, maize farmer Jules Nzasabimfura says erosion has already taken a toll this year.

"Our fields are often washed away, taking the maize with them,” he said. "Planting trees and maintaining anti-erosion hedges is our main defence.”

He had expected a strong harvest, but frequent storms have already wiped out part of it. "Even terraced fields were affected. When maize is swept away, you have no option but to start again—sometimes switching to beans just to recover something.”

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Lightning remains one of the biggest fears during the season. "Floodwater strips the land bare, leaving even water pipes hanging in the air. I’ve lost about three fields so far this year, but we’ve already started reclaiming them,” he added.

Forecast raises concern

According to Meteo Rwanda, the heaviest MAM rainfall—estimated at 680 to 800 millimetres—is expected in Rubavu, Nyabihu, Rusizi and Nyamasheke districts, as well as parts of Rutsiro, Ngororero, Burera, Musanze, Karongi, Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru.

The projected totals exceed the national seasonal range of about 280 to 800 millimetres and the long-term average of roughly 270 to 770 millimetres.

The outlook is worrying. Data from MINEMA show that over the past six years, the MAM season accounted for more than half of disaster-related deaths nationwide and nearly two-thirds of housing damage.

Districts on alert

Districts expected to receive the heaviest rains say preparations are already underway.

Rubavu District Mayor Prosper Mulindwa said lessons from past floods are guiding current efforts.

"We know the forecast and we are ready. We are sensitising residents on basic disaster prevention, including protection against lightning, terracing, and improved drainage to reduce flooding and soil erosion.”

Local disaster management committees at sector level are mapping flood-prone rivers, while bridges are being rebuilt. Parents and schools have also been urged to release children early when weather conditions deteriorate.

In Rusizi District, Mayor Phanuel Sindayiheba said awareness campaigns have been intensified with partners, including the Red Cross. Disaster-risk hotspots such as Bugarama, Rubyiro and Ruhwa, as well as the Kadasomwa River and areas near Muko Mountain, have been identified.

"Families that needed relocation were moved last year,” he said, adding that temporary sites including one in Gakoni Cell, Muganza Sector can host between 150 and 200 households in emergencies. Work is also ongoing to improve waterways in the Bugarama plain to prevent floods from sweeping away crops.

Nyamasheke District Mayor Narcisse Mupenzi said the district’s proximity to Nyungwe National Park and Lake Kivu makes it vulnerable to both landslides and floods.

"Most high-risk households were relocated in previous years,” he said. "However, we have evacuation sites ready in the Ntendezi and Kirimbi sectors should there be sudden disasters.”

Mupenzi noted that floods can strike downstream areas even when rainfall occurs upstream, particularly in swamps near Lake Kivu. To mitigate this, communication channels have been established between upstream and downstream communities.

"We advise farmers in swamps to move away when it rains heavily upstream,” he said, adding that farmers are also encouraged not to delay harvesting when crops are ready and to enrol in agricultural insurance schemes to cushion potential losses.