Rwanda is likely to experience slightly above-normal rainfall during the March-April-May (MAM) 2026 season, according to the Rwanda Meteorology Agency.
The agency urged Rwandans to prepare for possible floods and landslides.
The recent national forecast indicates rainfall totals ranging between 280 and 800 millimetres, slightly higher than the long-term average of 270 to 770 millimetres.
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"The forecast is influenced by several climate factors, including neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions, the Indian Ocean Dipole, active Madden-Julian Oscillation phases, and the northward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, which is expected to increase moisture over Rwanda,” according to Aimable Gahigi, the Director General of Meteo Rwanda.
The heavier rainfall, between 680 and 800 mm, is expected in Rubavu, Nyabihu, Rusizi, and Nyamasheke Districts, as well as parts of Rutsiro, Ngororero, Burera, Musanze, Karongi, Nyamagabe, and Nyaruguru Districts.
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Moderate rainfall, ranging from 480 to 680 mm, is expected in Gakenke, Rulindo, Gicumbi, Muhanga, and most of Western Province, along with parts of the City of Kigali and other districts.
Lighter rainfall, 280 to 480 mm, is expected in the Eastern Province, remaining areas of Kigali, and some parts of Gisagara, Huye, Nyanza, Ruhango, and Kamonyi Districts.
Meteo Rwanda forecasts the rainy season will begin around mid-February in parts of Southern and Western provinces, spreading to the rest of the country by early March. The season is expected to end between mid and late May, depending on the location.
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Gahigi said Meteo Rwanda’s seasonal forecasts have an accuracy rate of around 75 per cent, while daily forecasts stand at about 83 per cent. He noted that new observation equipment, recently tested in Huye, is expected to improve forecast accuracy further and support the introduction of new forecast products.
Disaster risks during the season
The rainy season has historically been Rwanda’s most critical period for disasters. Data from the Ministry in charge of Emergency Management (MINEMA) shows that between 2020 and 2025, the season accounted for more than half of disaster-related deaths and nearly two-thirds of damages to houses in the country.
During this period, 495 people died and 685 were injured due to hydro-meteorological hazards. Floods, landslides, and heavy rains destroyed 2,440 houses and damaged 15,263 others. Agricultural losses were also significant, with 7,377 hectares of crops destroyed and livestock killed, including 173 cattle and 3,872 other animals.
Infrastructure and public services were not spared. Authorities recorded 256 affected road sections, 199 destroyed bridges, 35 damaged electricity transmission lines, 179 disrupted water supply systems, and damage to 455 classrooms, 10 health centres, 42 churches, and four markets.
Christine Niyotwambaza, the Director General of Surveillance and Preparedness at MINEMA, emphasised the importance of preparedness.
"Seasonal forecasts are vital tools for saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and guiding development planning,” she said.
She urged residents to follow advisories from Meteo Rwanda, heed warnings from MINEMA and local authorities, avoid building or living in disaster-prone areas, and report any signs of floods, landslides, storms, or other disasters promptly.
Measures in place include identifying disaster hotspots, relocating people from risky areas, and constructing terraces on steep slopes to reduce disaster risks, she added.