Rwanda is expected to receive wetter-than-normal conditions during the March to May rainy season, according to the latest seasonal climate outlook by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).

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In its forecast released on Tuesday, January 27, ICPAC indicated a 45 per cent probability of above-normal rainfall across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, including Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi and Tanzania.

The long-term-means for Rwanda ranges between 250 mm to 650 mm in the March-May period.

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The outlook covers one of the main agricultural seasons in the country (Season B), when most farmers depend on rainfall for crop production with crops like beans, banana, sweet and Irish potatoes, and cassava.

No local forecast has yet been issued for the 2026 March-May season, but in the same period last year, Rwanda Meteorological Agency (Meteo Rwanda) had predicted rainfall of between 250 mm and 550 mm, slightly below the usual long-term average of 250 mm to 650 mm.

The 2025 forecast was influenced by cooler-than-normal Pacific Ocean temperatures (La Niña) and near-normal Indian Ocean temperatures. Compared with previous seasons, the 2025 rains were similar to those recorded in 2017 and 2021.