The country is expected to receive above-average rainfall in January 2026, with the Rwanda Meteorology Agency forecasting between 50mm and 300mm across the country.
According to the forecast, rainfall will be slightly above the Long-Term Mean (LTM) in most areas, particularly in the Western, Northern and Southern provinces, the City of Kigali and some parts of the Eastern Province.
The January LTM usually ranges between 26mm and 269mm.
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The agency says rainfall during the first and third ten-day periods of the month is expected to fall within the normal range, while the second ten-day period is likely to record slightly higher-than-average rainfall.
The rains are attributed to the convergence of winds from the Southern Hemisphere towards the region.
Where the heaviest rains are expected
The highest rainfall, between 250mm and 300mm, is forecast for Rusizi and Nyamasheke districts, as well as parts of Rubavu, Rutsiro, Karongi, Nyamagabe, Nyaruguru, Musanze and Nyabihu districts.
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Rainfall of between 200mm and 250mm is expected in other parts of the Western Province, much of Musanze, Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru, the City of Kigali, and parts of Ngororero, Muhanga, Huye, Gisagara, Nyanza, Ruhango, Gakenke, Kamonyi, Rulindo and Burera districts.
Areas expected to receive between 150mm and 200mm include Bugesera District, parts of Kigali, and sections of Gakenke, Rulindo, Kamonyi, Ruhango, Nyanza, Kirehe, Gicumbi, Burera, Gatsibo, Ngoma and Rwamagana districts.
Rainfall ranging from 100mm to 150mm is forecast in parts of Burera, Gicumbi, Rwamagana, Ngoma, Kirehe, Nyagatare, Kayonza and Gatsibo districts, while other parts of Kayonza, Gatsibo and Nyagatare are expected to receive the lowest amounts, between 50mm and 100mm.
Temperature outlook
Daytime maximum temperatures are expected to range between 21°C and 30°C. The highest temperatures, between 28°C and 30°C, are forecast in Bugarama Plain, the City of Kigali, the Amayaga region and many parts of the Eastern Province, as well as parts of Rulindo, Gakenke and Muhanga districts.
Lower daytime temperatures, between 21°C and 23°C, are expected in parts of Nyabihu and Musanze districts.
Night-time minimum temperatures will range from 9°C to 18°C. The coolest conditions, between 9°C and 11°C, are expected in parts of Nyabihu and Musanze, while warmer nights, between 16°C and 18°C, are forecast in Bugarama Plain, Amayaga, parts of Huye, much of the Eastern Province and the City of Kigali.
Wind conditions
Moderate to strong winds are expected across the country, with speeds ranging from 4 to 12 metres per second. Strong winds are forecast in parts of Rubavu, Musanze, Burera, Bugesera, Ngororero, Karongi, Nyanza, Kayonza, Kirehe, Ngoma, Gisagara, Huye and Nyaruguru districts.
Other areas, including parts of Kigali, Gakenke, Nyamasheke, Rutsiro, Rusizi, Nyagatare and Nyamagabe districts, are expected to experience moderate winds, while the rest of the country will see moderate to strong wind conditions.