The 2025 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (RDHS) showed that the fertility rate among women aged 15 to 49 in Rwanda has decreased to 3.7 children from 4.1 in 2019-2020.
Fertility rate means the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime. It is usually calculated based on the number of births in a country and the number of women in child-bearing age.
The RDHS, conducted every five years by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), tracks population and health trends across the country. Data shows a consistent reduction in fertility rates from 6.1 in 2005 to 4.6 in 2010, 4.2 in 2014–15, and 4.1 in 2019–20, highlighting Rwanda’s long-term demographic transition.
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Speaking in an interview with The New Times, Ignace Kabano, a lecturer in applied statistics at the University of Rwanda specialising in demography and development planning, referred to the decline as an "achievement” rooted in deliberate investment in reproductive health and population planning.
He noted that in countries where family planning information remains limited, families often face emotional and financial strain.
Rwanda, he said, has made notable progress by ensuring that women and families are informed, supported, and able to make reproductive choices.
He attributed such to policies that expanded access to reproductive health tools and medicines, coupled with decentralised healthcare delivery.
"This has created a multiplier effect. The drop from 4.1 in 2019 to 3.7 in 2025 reflects the combined impact of policy, education, and service availability,” he added.
Economic implication and demographic dividend
Kabano said the declining fertility rate presents a major opportunity for Rwanda’s economy. With fewer dependents per household, families can invest more in education and well-being, while the government can better plan for human capital development.
As Rwanda pursues its ambition to become a knowledge-based economy, Kabano noted that parallel efforts to combat stunting and improve child nutrition further strengthen long-term economic prospects.
We should be cautious
Despite the positive outlook, Kabano warned against the unintended consequences of excessive fertility decline. He pointed to some developed countries that successfully reduced fertility rates but later faced labour shortages and ageing populations.
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"These developed countries are now suffering. They don't have a labour force now,” he said.
He warned that people should be careful not to adopt a mindset of completely disengaging from childbearing in the name of modernity, noting that the population is the foundation of development and sustainability.
Kabano explained that fertility rates below replacement level, where parents have fewer than two children, can halve the size of the next generation, weakening the labour force. He emphasized that continuous education for both men and women about responsible reproduction should be prioritised.