The FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign enters its critical final stage yet, Rwanda’s chances of making history by qualifying for the premier football tourney appear increasingly slim.

With just four matches remaining, Amavubi find themselves four points adrift of group leaders South Africa, and their prospects of advancing to the global stage seem to be slipping away.

Under the guidance of first, Frank Torsten Spittler and now Adel Amrouche, Rwanda has shown resilience and moments of promise thus far in these qualifiers.

Their campaign began brightly, with a memorable 2-0 victory over South Africa and goalless draw against Zimbabwe at home, setting high hopes among fans and players alike.

However, subsequent results have been less favorable, and the recent setbacks, including the 2-0 home loss to Nigeria, have cast a shadow over their qualification ambitions, especially after Amrouche took over the team from Spittler who left after his contract wasn’t extended.

Rwanda currently sits second in Group C with eight points, level with Benin but trailing the top spot occupied by South Africa, who boast 13 points.

Nigeria, traditionally a powerhouse, is in fourth place with seven points, while Zimbabwe and Lesotho occupy the bottom positions with five and six points, respectively.

The standings highlight the stiff competition and the narrow margins that separate the top contenders.

With four matches remaining—three away fixtures against Nigeria, Zimbabwe and South Africa, and home game against Benin — the road to USA, Canada, and Mexico is steep.

For Rwanda to qualify automatically, they need to win their remaining matches and hope for favorable results elsewhere. But history and recent form suggest that such a feat is unlikely at this stage. This is the reality.

Challenges facing Rwanda:

One of the key hurdles is their upcoming away fixtures. Facing Nigeria in Uyo on September 6 is a daunting task, considering Nigeria’s formidable home record and the high stakes of the match.

Nigeria, sitting just one point behind Rwanda, will be desperate for victory to keep their hopes alive, especially with FIFA’s ongoing investigation into South Africa's alleged use of an ineligible player.

Bafana Bafana only need two wins to qualify for the 2026 World Cup -- and that is because FIFA have not deducted points from them as Lesotho did not report the matter within 24 hours.

This means if South Africa beat Nigeria and Lesotho in their next two Fifa World Cup qualifying matches they will have 19 points and clear at the top.

Following the match in Uyo, Amavubi will travel to Johannesburg for another tough encounter against Zimbabwe, who are currently positioned just below Rwanda in the table.

Zimbabwe will also view this match as an opportunity to climb higher and stay in contention. Which is why the combined pressure of these away matches could prove decisive in Rwanda’s qualification journey.

Back home, Rwanda’s remaining fixtures include a crucial clash against Benin, a team level on points and eager to snatch qualification themselves. The final match against South Africa, the group leaders, will be a significant test.

Despite their admirable efforts, Rwanda faces formidable obstacles that diminish their chances.

The four-point gap to South Africa, coupled with the limited number of matches remaining, means they must rely on a combination of results—most notably, winning all their upcoming fixtures and hoping South Africa drop points.

The omission of key players such as Claude Smith Kayibanda due to injury, and the failure to include other players like Lague Byiringiro, could impact team depth.

Meanwhile, the likes of Nigeria and South Africa have bolstered their squads with experienced and talented players, giving them an edge.

Historically, Rwanda has never qualified for the FIFA World Cup. Their best performances have been limited to appearances in the Africa Cup of Nations, with their last qualification in 2004.

The current campaign, while filled with hope and determination at first, seems to be heading in the same direction—one of near misses and "what could have been.”

The psychological toll of narrowly missing qualification can be significant for players and fans alike.

Looking ahead, Rwanda’s new football administration, headed by newly elected Fabrice Shema, might need to focus on developing youth talent, improving domestic league standards, and investing in coaching infrastructure to build a more competitive team capable of challenging the continent’s best in future qualifiers.

And as Amavubi prepare for its final four matches, the reality is stark: their chances of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup are slim.

The four-point gap to South Africa, combined with the formidable opponents still to face, suggests that their dream of participating in this prestigious tournament may have to wait for another cycle.

Yet, football is unpredictable. An upset here or a stroke of luck there could still alter the course of their journey.

For now, however, Rwanda must accept that their current situation leaves little room for error—a humbling reminder of how competitive and unforgiving African qualifiers can be.

Only the nine group winners are guaranteed a spot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup finals, with the four best-placed runners-up entering play-offs in November for a second chance to qualify via an intercontinental route.

Group C leaders Bafana Bafana only need two wins to qualify for the 2026 World Cup -- and that is because FIFA has not deducted points from them as Lesotho did not report the matter within 24 hours.

This means if South Africa beat Nigeria and Lesotho in their next two Fifa World Cup qualifying matches they will have 19 Points and clear at the top.