When Joseph Kabila, who led the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) from 2001 to 2019 and was once a close ally of current President Félix Tshisekedi, appeared in Goma earlier this year, flanked by M23 rebel leaders and greeted by a meticulously staged crowd, it was far more than a political comeback.

The stakes are monumental. In a region where central authority teeters on collapse, Kabila has resurfaced as the symbolic architect of a nascent political order. By openly aligning with M23 in rebel-held territory, he is staking a claim at the heart of a growing insurgency, boldly daring Kinshasa to respond.

His rhetoric of "national salvation” and "patriotic resistance” echoes the language of rebellion, while his presence in Goma lends critical legitimacy to an emerging alternative power center. What unfolds here could signal a political reset, or the first irreversible step toward the fragmentation of the Congolese state.

From foe to ally

Kabila’s return is remarkable not only for the location but for his newfound allies. Under his presidency, M23 was his fiercest adversary. Born from frustrations over the government’s failure to implement a 2009 peace deal, M23 briefly seized Goma in 2012 before being crushed with international assistance. Kabila branded them as foreign-backed spoilers undermining Congo’s sovereignty.

A decade later, the script has flipped. M23 once again controls vast swaths of North Kivu, and this time, they don’t just tolerate Kabila; they embrace him. His visit to Goma signals a strategic political pact: the rebels gain legitimacy, while Kabila secures a territorial stronghold beyond the reach of Kinshasa’s authority.

This is no mere irony; it’s a deliberate strategic recalibration. Kabila retroactively legitimizes M23’s long-standing grievances, especially those of Congolese Tutsi communities who felt abandoned by the state. M23 is no longer just a rebel militia; it is evolving into the armed wing of a broader political project, with Kabila as its civilian face.

Goma: Capital of a Counter-State?

In the eyes of this coalition, Goma is no longer a rebel enclave, it is the de facto capital of a parallel state. Public addresses invoke a decisive break from Kinshasa’s "tribalism, nepotism, and oppression,” calling for a return to "patriotic governance.”

This is an old playbook. During the Second Congo War, Goma was the headquarters of the Rwandan-backed RCD movement, which built parallel institutions and levied taxes independent of Kinshasa. Today’s developments eerily echo that era. Once more, a militarized enclave asserts itself as a legitimate political alternative, not merely a security threat.

This shift matters profoundly because it recasts rebellion as governance. In this new order, authority is defined not by elections but by territorial control, and laws are enforced only where power can be backed by arms.

Legal Shield, Political Armor

Kabila’s eastern pivot is more than a political maneuver, it is a shield. With his senatorial immunity stripped and facing serious charges of treason and war crimes, Kinshasa is no longer safe ground. In Goma, surrounded by armed allies, he is effectively beyond the state’s reach.

This pattern is familiar in Congolese politics: Jean-Pierre Bemba once commanded forces from exile under indictment; Bosco Ntaganda evaded arrest for years in military zones. In Congo, firepower often grants impunity, and geography can trump justice.

For now, Kabila enjoys a protective buffer. Any attempt to detain him in rebel territory risks igniting open conflict. In effect, he weaponizes the state’s weakness to shield himself from its laws.

Rebellion rewritten

Kabila’s tone has hardened. No longer sidelined, he now speaks as the voice of a liberation movement. Echoing his father’s revolutionary rhetoric and aligning with M23, which now brands itself a "people’s army”, he challenges what he deems an illegitimate regime in Kinshasa.

This is no mere political posturing. The son of Congo’s last rebel-turned-president invokes "national redemption” to justify armed resistance. Armed with historical precedent and territorial control, this transcends opposition, it is the foundation of a militarized insurgency.

At stake is not only electoral rivalry but the emergence of dual sovereignty: one power center clinging to Kinshasa’s fragile post-2018 order, the other rising in the East, rooted in force and defiance.

Kabila’s eastern pivot also exposes the collapse of DR Congo’s post-2018 political transition. His uneasy alliance with Félix Tshisekedi once promised stability, now it lies in ruins. His turn toward insurgency is not just a rejection of Tshisekedi’s leadership; it is a damning indictment of the system he once helped construct.

By casting himself as the champion of "real democracy” and "national unity,” Kabila weaponizes the legitimacy he once denied others. DR Congo’s first peaceful transfer of power is unraveling into a brutal showdown between rival regimes, each claiming to represent the nation, neither willing to relent.

A State on the edge

Joseph Kabila’s resurgence in Goma is more than a political comeback, it is a direct challenge to the very foundations of the Congolese state. By embracing insurgents and claiming authority from rebel-held territory, he is redefining power, legitimacy, and governance in Congo.

Whether this marks the beginning of a necessary political reckoning or the slide toward state disintegration will depend on the responses from Kinshasa, the region, and the international community.

One fact remains undeniable: the Democratic Republic of Congo is no longer governed from a single capital.