Former Kasai Province governor Hubert Kabasu Babu has said the AFC/M23 rebels’ military superiority and rapid capture of important cities in eastern DR Congo is one of the factors that could push Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi to directly negotiate with the politico-military group, despite previously having refused to engage it and even put a price on its leaders’ heads.

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Last week, Congolese authorities offered a $5m reward for help in arresting Alliance fleuve Congo (AFC) coordinator Corneille Nangaa, his deputy Bertrand Bisimwa and the rebellion’s military commander, Gen Sultani Makenga, about two months after the vast government army coalition crumbled and failed to contain their advance.

The current conflict and fighting between the government army coalition and M23 rebels started in 2021. M23 is now part of a larger and increasingly expanding rebel coalition, AFC, created in December 2023.

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In January, the rebels quickly advanced across North and South Kivu provinces, liberating swathes of territory. Following heavy fighting triggered by constant violations by the Congolese army coalition, of an earlier set ceasefire, on January 27, the rebels captured Goma, the capital of North Kivu Province, and restored order there. As the security situation in South Kivu deteriorated amid reports of violence, looting, and abuses propagated by the Congolese army coalition, the rebels again reacted, first capturing the strategic airport of Kavumu, before moving south to capture the regional capital, Bukavu, on February 15.

Tshisekedi’s regime has, for the past three years, categorically refused to engage in direct peace talks with the rebels, calling them terrorists, and alleged that they are supported by Rwanda and are not Congolese.

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But Angola’s presidency announced in a statement, on March 13, that direct peace talks between AFC/M23 rebels and the Congolese government are set to start in Luanda, on March 18.

In an interview with VOA Afrique – posted on YouTube on March 14 – Babu, who is also former president of association of Congolese provinces, said the announcement of talks between Kinshasa and the rebels is "a significant step forward, provided that these dialogues can materialise.”

Babu said that at the beginning, the Tshisekedi regime seemed to despise the rebels, but later realised that it was actually a force to reckon with given its "acceleration,” in seizing important cities, notably Goma and Bukavu, with even the impetus for an advance towards other parts of the country.

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"I think it was this advance, but also the fact that the AFC/M23 was able to recruit thousands of Congolese soldiers who were helpless, frustrated, and abandoned. But the AFC/M23 also recovered a significant military arsenal,” he observed, adding: "And equally the fact that many African presidents have insisted that Tshisekedi should negotiate with M23.”

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Tribalism and erosion of constitutional democracy

Babu also discussed the underlying causes of the ongoing crisis in DR Congo, highlighting issues including what he described as the erosion of constitutional democracy under Tshisekedi’s rule and the lack of electoral legitimacy.

The opposition, including AFC/M23, views Tshisekedi’s regime as autocratic and illegitimate, citing electoral fraud in 2018 and 2023, Babu observed.

There are two fundamental causes of the current crisis, he said, the first being a crisis of constitutional democracy due to the dictatorial shift, not only a simple dictatorship, but also predation, tribalism, the and destruction of national cohesion, as well as "a crisis of legitimacy” because the armed and civilian opposition "considers that Mr. Tshisekedi did not win the 2023 elections and is imposing himself by force.”

Kabasu underscored that resolving the crisis requires upholding the constitution, ensuring credible elections, and addressing the country’s deep-rooted issues, including security threats from militias and a mismanaged government army.

Rwanda, which Kinshasa continuously scapegoats for everything going wrong in the east of the country, he explained, has nothing to do with the mess in the country.

"But today, we could put things into perspective by saying that, even if we took Rwanda today, moved it from where it is, and took it to Latin America, the Congolese problem remains unsolved,” he said.

"The problem of the crisis of constitutional democracy and the crisis of legitimacy remains an unsolved problem. The problem of the degradation of the state, which is no longer capable of achieving national cohesion, of protecting all tribes, of protecting all territories, and the army, which is poorly managed with soldiers who are not properly paid, who are not properly equipped,” he observed, also citing more than 100 militia groups present in DR Congo and pose a security threat to the country.