"I know leaders when I see them. I also know idiots when I see them. If you are a leader and an idiot, it is an absolute DISASTER.”
Though President Kagame made that statement in January while addressing the diplomatic corps, his words have resonated with me more and more as I’ve watched DR Congo’s president, Felix Tshisekedi, and his government of incompetents singlehandedly kill and bury the very idea of a viable Congolese state.
I mean, let’s just look at what has happened since President Kagame’s statement.
As the commander-in-chief of the FARDC, the Congolese national army, Tshisekedi has lost two major cities (Goma and Bukavu) and is likely to lose a third (Uvira).
Because of these losses, particularly Goma, he has embarrassed his East and Southern African allies as well as some of his European backers.
Lest we forget, Tshisekedi’s ‘Dream Team’ of foreign combatants—including Romanian mercenaries, the Burundian national army, the South Africa-led SAMIDRC, the Rwandan FDLR genocidal terrorists, and Monusco ‘peacekeepers’—were supposed to make Goma impenetrable.
As we now know, Goma was as impenetrable to the M23 as the Titanic was to the iceberg.
By losing Goma, he not only surrendered the capital of North Kivu Province but also lost a significant arsenal, including tanks, armored personnel carriers, drones, and advanced artillery. In one fell swoop, Tshisekedi and his FARDC inadvertently equipped his most formidable enemy. So, his first idiotic move? Losing Goma to M23.
Now, Tshisekedi could have recognized the shifting tides and expedited direct talks between his government and the M23. But doing so would have gone against his nature. So, he refused. Not only did he refuse, but he also did so publicly. On Twitter.
Anyone else in his position would have remained silent while searching for a way out of the corner they had backed themselves into. Not Felix. He squeezed himself in even further.
Last month, in front of a confused audience in Munich, Germany, Tshisekedi dragged his immediate predecessor, Joseph Kabila, into his mess by accusing him of being the true power behind the AFC/M23.
In doing so, he forced Kabila to break his silence. Since then, Kabila has penned his thoughts in a South African newspaper (where he called for SADC to stop supporting Tshisekedi’s "tyrannical regime”) and has made obvious overtures to Moise Katumbi, Tshisekedi’s bête noire.
Again, Felix didn’t have to say a word in Germany. He could have stayed disciplined and on-message. But he couldn’t help himself. As a result, he has brought his two biggest foes together. That was idiotic move number two.
Idiotic move number three? How about waking up one morning and declaring that the DR Congo would suspend exports of cobalt, a metal critical for the multi-billion-dollar EV industry, for four months? Tshisekedi did this just last week, driving prices skyward and panicking the market.
According to the DR Congo government, the export ban was due to an ‘oversupply’ of cobalt in the international market. Even if we pretend that this is true, Tshisekedi's unilateral approach unnerves global power players. And if he makes them nervous, what incentive do they have to keep supporting such a loose cannon?
Idiotic move number four? Attempting to mortgage his country’s mineral wealth to the US government in return for their backing.
In a letter addressed to the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, an American lobbyist purporting to represent a Congolese senator not only promised to give Americans free rein in the DR Congo but also tried to do so by pitting them against the Chinese, who have a huge stake in Congo’s mineral trade.
As any student of history knows, the last time a Congolese president attempted to play the Great Powers against each other, the ‘game’ ended with him getting shot, cut into pieces, and dissolved in a vat of acid. I’m talking about Patrice Lumumba.
Idiotic move number five? This week, the DR Congo Ministry of Finance announced that all goods from M23-controlled territories would be treated like ‘imports’ and would therefore have to pay import duties.
Think about it: traders in Butembo will now have to pay import duties if they want Gouda cheese from Masisi. Kinshasa’s boogeyman has always been the specter of ‘Balkanization.’ That’s the alarm the ruling class has sounded since M23 overran Bunagana.
Well, by treating parts of North and South Kivu as separate countries, worthy of import duties, they are actively creating the very thing they fear most—a territory that is no longer governed by the Congolese state.
There is an old saying: "When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.”
Unfortunately, not just for the Congolese people but for all of us in the region, the Tshisekedi regime will keep digging until who knows when. They’ll dig themselves a grave, and all we can do is fortify ourselves as this unfolds. Let’s hold on tight!
The author is a commentator and host of The Long Form podcast