Following a recession by 3.4 per cent in 2020, the economy is projected to grow by over 10 per cent in 2021 characterized by recovery of disrupted sectors. This will also involve making up for lost progress in aspects such as education, social protection and entrepreneurship among others.
The New Times Collins Mwai spoke to Keith Hansen, the World Bank Country Director for Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia and Uganda on the bank’s assessment of Rwanda in the recovery journey, key opportunities and milestones so far.
Excerpts below:
The education sector was cited as one of the most affected by the pandemic especially with regard to learning outcomes and durations lost out of school. What are the best chances of catching up?
Education has been one of the biggest and damaging shocks of the pandemic. It is going to take a while to assess the full extent of the damage, what needs to be done and remedy the short fall. A few things need to be considered. We need to make up for the lost time. This is a country level approach to determine what was lost, what resources are available and what can work best. This is something that we are working with the government to establish and find a way out.
The answer also lies in finishing the ultimate job of vaccination because without that, nothing else can flow. It is the only way we can get the kids back in school and other things back running. Rwanda has done very well in the rapid rollout.
The challenges that existed in many countries in learning even before Covid-19, have been highlighted and urgently need to be addressed.
The government in Rwanda built over 22,000 classrooms during the pandemic which will be a big step in quality and learning outcomes in Rwanda. The country made an opportunity out of a crisis. I know the government is very keen on completing the job and moving on to other things.
In 2020, there was concern that there was a need for more social safety nets to prevent people from slipping into poverty. Where does the country stand now?
One of the things that Covid-19 revealed was the weaknesses in social protection programmes such as social safety nets especially those that are crisis responsive. This was a big opportunity. It has demonstrated the cost of not having this in place. There is a wealth of experience around the world of sustainable and appropriate social protection systems. Countries that had this in place were able to respond in time and as they come out of covid, they are better placed. This is something that we are working with Rwanda on.
SMEs which are said to be the largest employer in any economy and driver of growth suffered significantly with some having to close operations, what is the World Bank’s advice on ensuring survival of SMEs?
All these lessons are general and not just for Rwanda. SMEs are crucial and especially in countries where larger firms can establish themselves. It is an important source of employment as countries move from Agriculture dependence to manufacturing and services. These firms need ready access to financial services and support. It is also a source of innovation and entrepreneurship.
The Rwandan economy is projected to grow by over 10 per cent in 2021 marking a recovery from recession, what are the best chances of sustaining the recovery and growth amidst the global turbulence?
The one answer that applies to everyone again is vaccination. It is the avenue to get back to growth. It is ideal that Rwanda has had a track record of growth for the last few years. While some of the growth is rebound, but the magnitude of it is encouraging. We are optimistic that Rwanda will be able to return to its growth path. The government has put forth a national strategy, the economy will need to go through continued transformation to get to the next phase as it moves up to a middle income state. That means there continues to be a greater need to ensure that there is access to infrastructure, boosting human capital, boosting productivity among others. To be fair to Rwanda and other emerging countries, much of what happens to them depends on what happens to the global economy.
Given the World Bank’s investment across multiple sectors, what are your broad expectations from various stakeholders?
Rwanda has a record of delivery and performing. It’s not the World Bank’s place to set expectations for the country, we serve the country and work with them to find the best path and support them.
I would expect that based on past performance, most of the goals will be achieved including brings services to a vast majority of the population and moving up the value chain in sectors such as agriculture. Rwanda has also made a huge commitment in human capital backed by resources and we have a number of financial support systems and look forward to see the goals. We are also sure to see the gains from the vaccination efforts as Rwanda has been very efficient.
For the private sector, we would like to see them take a larger role of the government’s strategy as it is the ultimate driver of sustainable growth and on the verge of becoming a middle income country.
We are hopeful that the steps that the government is taking in upgrading infrastructure and opening up the environment are going to help induce more private sector response. That will take a while and not immediately.
Rwanda is one of the countries that have made commitments to climate change efforts and some of the lessons of resilience from Covid-19 will also be useful in dealing with climate change. One of the things that distinguishes those that are able to thrive and not is resilience to shocks.