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Climate change experts have linked global warming to such unusual heavy rains that have been causing disasters across Rwanda.

Anthony Twahirwa, Division Manager of Weather/Climate Services and Applications at Rwanda Metrological Agency (Meteo Rwanda), told The New Times the unusual weather patterns could be linked to climate change.

He said that the year 2020 was the hottest year on record triggering changes in weather patterns.

According to the official, the last six years (between 2015 and 2020) have been the warmest years on record and they are blamed for driving and increasing some of the climate extremes that have been witnessed in the recent times.

"For example January and February rains this year are unusual. We used to experience short dry seasons in the same period previously, but this year we experienced heavy rains that killed people, animals and destroyed properties. This is due to global warming,” he said.

According to the ministry of emergency management, the disaster-induced losses have also increased by 50 per cent compared to the past three years.

From January to today, officials said damages are twice the value of losses incurred during torrential rains in the same period last year.

The rains, according to Twahirwa, are also set to slightly increase in provinces of Rwanda and slightly reduce in Kigali in the months of March, April and May this year compared to the same period last year.

Last year, he explained, Northern Province got rainfall between 440 and 500 millimetres. It is predicted to increase to between 450 and 550 millimetres this year.

In Southern Province, the rains were between 470 and 510 millimetres last year and they are expected to also increase up to 450 and 550 millimetres this year.

Eastern Province recorded rains between 380 and 440 millimetres last year, and it is expected to get between 350 and 450 millimetres this year.

Western Province had between 490 and 540 millimetres rainfall last year and the forecast shows it will reduce to between 550 and 600 millimetres this year.

Kigali City got between 440 and 470 millimetres last year and it is also expected to reduce to between 350 and 450 millimetres during March, April and May this year.

"One millimetre equals one litre of water on soil. This means that this rain might cause problems in some areas. Everybody should take strategic measures to minimize the impacts associated with extreme events of weather and climate,” Twahirwa said.

Climate change expert views

According to Engineer Charles Mugabo, a climate change expert who is also a member of Rwanda Association of Professional Environmental Practitioners, the climate change has affected weather patterns according to studies.

"Climate change is now a reality in Rwanda. We used to have four seasons but we are tending to have two seasons at both extremes; rainy and dry seasons owing to the weather patterns change,” he said.

He cited an example of how rains prolonged from September 2020 up to now yet Rwandans used to have short dry season between December and February before getting into another wet season from March to May.

"It remains to be confirmed by science but the changes are clear. Rains increased a lot. Following what we found in our study, rains have increased in both quantity and duration,” he said.

He links the changes to increase in temperature.

"For instance, on average, temperature has increased to between 33 and 34 degree Celsius in Kigali city yet previously it was around 29 degrees,” he said.

The expert who part of the team that prepares National Communication Report on Climate Change said they are also preparing the fourth report to show the status on climate change.

National Communication reports are submitted to the United Nations every four years under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC).

Increase in damages

The climate change effects have had huge impact on Rwanda.

According to the official data by the Ministry of Emergency Management, about 300 people lost their lives as 398 were injured in 2020.

At least 8,013 houses, 95 classrooms, four health centres, 151 roads, 102 bridges, 22 churches, 26 water supply systems, 96 electricity transmission lines, 16 administrative offices, six markets and one factory were damaged while 3,491 livestock died owing to disasters just last year.

The data shows that 5,968 hectares of crops and 458 hectares of forests were damaged by disasters.

From January to March 10 this year, at least 34 people lost their lives while 76 were injured.

What should be done?

Mugabo urged government to relocate people from high risk zones.

"Other practices include investing more in controlling soil erosion through terracing, agro-forestry and other interventions, planting more trees, plant crop varieties that are resilient to weather patterns, invest in post-harvest technologies, rainwater harvesting, drainages in cities and other green technologies that both help in mitigation and adaption to climate change though they are costly,” he noted.

Philippe Habinshuti, the Director for the Response and Recovery Unit at the Ministry of Emergency Management (MINEMA), has disclosed that there is a plan to build decent houses for 14,051 households displaced by disasters.

He added they plan emergency aid and recovery plan based on weather information.

Charles Bucagu, the Deputy Director-General of Agriculture Research and Technology Transfer at Rwanda Agricultural and Animal Resources Development Board, said they are choosing priority crops considering the expected rains.

"We urge farmers to embrace crop and livestock insurance,” he said.