Rwanda aims to attain high middle income status in the next thirty years. It is an ambitious but achievable goal, going by the current trajectory and policies in place. Several things explain why this is so.
The World Bank Doing Business figures for Rwanda have shown a consistent upward trend since they started measuring the country’s business reforms nearly fifteen years ago.
They have been matched by, and reflect, an equally consistent economic growth rate averaging eight percent annually for the past fifteen years or so.
The economic and business climate is therefore good, especially for investment, and there is no doubt foreign investors have taken full advantage of it.
But how much local businesses have similarly exploited a favourable business environment and are therefore growing as a result is less certain. There is indeed a feeling that they are not growing at the pace the reforms should enable.
To be fair, that has not been measured. The perception is only gleaned from various reports in the media, most of which is usually a litany of complaints and excuses of one sort or another, appeals to government for different kinds of intervention, and pleas to the general public to bear with them.
It is therefore important to know the reasons for this.
Is it because our business people are so risk averse and only want to invest where returns are assured and immediate? Probably. The mind seems to have been set to short-termism and safety first.
Quick returns are preferred to longer term investment even though eventual benefits may be greater and even more enduring.
Or maybe it is because our business people are too slow to seize opportunities as they present themselves. They are not adventurous enough, claim they do not have international contact, and so on.
Again, probably true. Yet we know there are many among them who are as business-savvy as any from anywhere. In addition technology has paved the way for direct marketing across borders and continents. The most recent in this respect is Alibaba’s eWTP that was launched in Kigali less than two weeks ago.
Perhaps it is due to government bureaucrats too slow to keep pace with developments in the business world. Maybe, but we also know that they do their bit, put policies in place and enforce them.
Of course, we also know that there are a few of them who think they are simply doing a job and cannot be bothered to exert a little more effort. They are good at holding meetings to analyse issues and draw up plans to address them, but slow on following them through.
Occasionally, they have to be reminded by the president that things are not working as they should in their sectors, and then they scramble to get moving.
All this, and more, is probably true.
The other factor as noted earlier is the leadership and personal initiatives of President Kagame. He has variously been described as CEO of Rwanda Inc., the man with a vision, who makes things happen, a doer with a solutions mindset.
He has paved Rwanda’s path to middle income status. He has often identified and helped correct the weaknesses listed above. He has been all over the globe making friends for Rwanda, establishing useful contacts, looking for markets for our products, and many more. In this he has been the chief marketer for brand Rwanda.
The president has been a ceaseless champion of innovation and technology. He has invited some of the best schools in this area to set up here, and sent some of our brightest young minds to schools abroad to acquire and bring back knowledge and skills that will help lift the country to a higher level.
His appointment of ministers and other public officials has been intended to inject a level of energy, dynamism and sense of urgency in the way we do things.
He has been the leading campaigner for a vibrant, effective private sector able to drive economic growth.
Yet we may be right to be concerned about a number of things.
Yes, President Kagame has found markets for Rwandan products, but are businesses producing enough to meet the demands of these markets? Or are they investing enough in readiness for the extra demand?
Think of our tea and coffee whose quality makes them first choice in many markets. Consider the developing textile, leather and crafts industries whose potential is high. And now mining has been added to the growing list of products from Rwanda in high demand.
Tourism has been doing well, but as teachers would say, there is always room for improvement.
It is clear that Rwanda is doing well. But it is also clear that local businesses must make full benefit of the favourable business climate. The ball is on their shop floor.
Twitter: @jrwagatare
The views expressed in this article are of the author.