So Amavubi Stars are in the final of the 2015 CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup. And going into today’s game against rivals Uganda Cranes in Ethiopia they are underdogs, aren’t they? Only that they are dangerous underdogs. Isn’t that what they are supposed to be, or at the very least (supposed) to be hungrier than Saturday’s opponents.

Don’t start drawing conclusions; under no circumstances can Amavubi – even if they won the final today and lifted their second CECAFA trophy – become favourites to win CHAN 2016.

But underestimate their strength at your own peril. Indeed lifting that regional ‘Big Ear’ trophy that has eluded Rwanda for the last 16 years would instill much needed confidence and belief in the players heading into next year’s Africa Nations Championship finals tournament on home turf.

At this year’s CECAFA, no one gave Amavubi even a sniff of a chance to be in this position they find themselves in, but here they are, and that’s football, very unpredictable – it’s not called a beautiful game for zilch, or is it?

Johnny McKinstry and his men need to seize the opportunity and turn the team’s fortunes around —16 years without winning the regional trophy, despite coming so close on a couple of occasions, isn’t so good enough for Rwanda, a country seen as a shining example in so many things in the region and beyond.

However, Uganda, under former Amavubi Stars coach Milutin ‘Micho’ Sredojovic, presents the biggest barrier that Rwanda can ever come against, and this makes Saturday’s final at the Addis Ababa National Stadium in Ethiopia, a more exciting prospect.

Experience shouldn’t be a big problem for McKinstry, for he has a couple of what I would call ‘battle-hardened’ soldiers in his ranks, among them, team captain Haruna Niyonzima, who, for reasons best known to the coach, has started the last two games on the bench.

Goalkeepers Eric ‘Bakame’ Ndayishimiye and Jean Claude Ndoli as well as midfielders Jean Baptiste Mugiraneza and Jean Claude Iranzi have been involved in more CECEFA battles than any other player in the Amavubi dressing room, contesting in the finals of 2009 and 2011— ironically, on both occasions, against Uganda.

Rwanda has lost to Uganda in three finals, the first time being in 2003, but believe you me, failure this time round, will come as a big disappointment, not that Amavubi are expected to win, but because winning the trophy might not only change the course of this country’s football history but could have an instant impact on Amavubi’s performance in the upcoming CHAN tournament to be hosted by Rwanda.

As they say confidence is a key ingredient to achieving success. It’s an old cliché but we all know that winning breeds confidence and losing does the exact opposite. So, if McKinstry, who I honestly believe can pull off this, goes on to defy odds and upset the applecart, it would buy him not only a few more friends but time to continue executing his two-year master plan.McKinstry a lucky man?

When the Northern Irishman, still only 30, took over the reins of Amavubi as a 29-year old rookie early this year, I wrote an article entitled, ‘McKinstry is a lucky man; should seize opportunity’ in which I stated my reason for believing so. I am not going back to the reasons I gave then but the bottom line is that his lucky charm is active and working (though not perfectly) for him.

Very few international coaches lose six matches in a row and stay in the job, but it happened to McKinstry. Not even losing to Libya home and away in the second round of the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia qualifiers – effectively ending Rwanda’s hopes of qualifying for the world’s biggest football showpiece – did seem to put the youthful coach’s job on the line.

Add that to the fact that his team were ranked outsiders to win the 2015 CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup, let alone reaching the final, yet here they are, only a win away from ultimate glory! Anyone saw that coming?

Indeed, before the curtains come down on this year’s tournament, the Amavubi might yet have more surprises for Rwanda and the CECAFA region.

editorial@newtimes.co.rw