Yesterday afternoon, Patrice Irakoze, a 23-year-old Burundian, sat at a coffee shop in the busy Kisimenti locale in Remera suburb of Kigali with three other Burundian friends, their pensive mood easily noticeable by passersby.

Concentrating on their phones, the four young men tried to follow up from acquaintances back home in Bujumbura on the latest following the morning assassination of Gen Adolphe Nshimirimana, a close aide to President Pierre Nkurunziza.

Nshimirimana, who previously served as chief of intelligence, was killed yesterday following an ambush on his car in Bujumbura, leaving the entire country tense.

By press time, no one had claimed responsibility of the attack.

Irakoze and his friends refer to Nshimirimana as one of the most powerful people in Burundi with authority over the military, police and Imbonerakure, the youth wing of Burundi’s ruling party, CNDD-FDD.

Nshimirimana’s death came at a time when a section of Burundian refugees in Rwanda, including Irakoze, were preparing to return home following last week’s controversial election which saw Nkurunziza return to power for a third term.

However, the new development, Irakoze told The New Times, have left them uncertain of the next move, since the assassination of the General is likely to trigger a new wave of violence from the Imbonerakure, the feared para-military youth group allied to the ruling party.

"From what we gather, there is a lot of tension back home; there are fears of revenge attacks by Imbonerakure and a section of the military. There is a lot of uncertainty and fear,” Irakoze said, adding that his plans of going back to university back home now hung in balance.

Following news of his death, warning messages of revenge attacks were making rounds on social media platforms.

Fears for security situation

According to analysts who have been following the Burundian political situation, Nshimirimana was one of the most influential people in the country and had been linked to the violent crackdown on anti-Nkurunziza protesters in recent months.

Archie Henry, a political commentator based in Kigali, told this newspaper that the security situation was likely to deteriorate in coming days as Burundian intelligence services search for the perpetrators of the attack.

"As the police keep searching for the perpetrators, it is likely to lead to more arrests, detainment and even torture. It could also be used by the ruling party to justify a crackdown of the opposition and civil society, it could trigger revenge killings,” Henry said.

Henry noted that reports emanating from Burundi suggest that there is also tension within the military since the perpetrators are said to have been dressed in military fatigues.

In the event that there are retaliatory attacks by Imbonerakure and the ruling party royalists, it is still unclear where the government will protect the civilian population under attack.

"They (the government) have the capacity to protect the civilian population in the event that Imbonerakure or anyone else attempted to carry out revenge attacks, the question is whether they have the will,” Henry said.

Nshimirimana is credited with having played a crucial role in foiling the coup attempt in May by forces royal to Gen Godefroid Niyombare.

Nkurunziza won the 21 July presidential polls with 69 per cent of the vote. The international community condemned the elections as not credible because of violence, intimidation, media restrictions and questions over the legitimacy of a third term for Nkurunziza.

The new development has cast a gloomy atmosphere on the refugee situation in the country.

Last week, statistics from the Ministry of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs indicated that Mahama Refugee Camp had surpassed 30,000 with 16,000 still living in reception centres.

The statistics also placed urban refugees at 20,624. Efforts to reach ministry officials for updated numbers by press time were futile.

There are more than 68,000 refugees in the country alone, with nearly 100,000 more in neighbouring DR Congo and Tanzania although some refugees had been reported as returning home last week.

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About Gen Adolphe Nshimirimana

Gen Adolphe Nshimirimana was arguably the most powerful man in Burundi after president Pierre Nkurunziza and had been accused of ordering brutal crackdowns on anti-government protesters. Nshimirimana, who was in charge of the president’s personal security, was seen as the mastermind behind the crackdown and a key player in foiling the May coup attempt.

There are fears that his death could be a spark in what was already a tinderbox.

editorial@newtimes.co.rw