What happens when a population is repeatedly described as foreign in the country it calls home? What happens when political exclusion, hate speech and armed violence become part of everyday life, while warnings of possible genocide continue to be issued?

A new special issue of Revue Dialogue, a Rwandan journal of information and reflection founded in 1967, examines the persecution of Rwandophone Tutsi in eastern DR Congo, warning that hate speech, exclusion and armed violence could create conditions for another catastrophe in the Great Lakes Region.

ALSO READ: Genocide ideology in DR Congo is a regional emergency

The 170-page publication, titled The Prolonged Genocide: Peace in the Great Lakes Region – An Essay in Analysis, brings together historical, political and contemporary perspectives on the region’s long-running crisis.

The publication contains both English and French versions, each comprising 170 pages, making the analysis accessible to readers in either language.

It has four authors: Antoine Mugesera, a former senator and member of the Rwanda Elders Advisory Forum; Jean-Damascène Bizimana, Minister of National Unity and Civic Engagement and an international law scholar; Innocent Nteziryayo, a Rwandan legal practitioner with expertise in justice, human rights and governance; and Aloys Tegera, a Rwandan researcher and analyst specialising in the political, economic and social dynamics of the Great Lakes region, including conflict and governance.

At the centre of the publication is a question posed by Mugesera: "Who Could Stop the Genocide of Rwandophone Tutsi in the Democratic Republic of Congo?”

Mugesera’s approximately 50-page contribution is one of the special issue’s central pieces.

The publication comes amid continued insecurity in eastern DR Congo, where the citizenship, political recognition and safety of Rwandophone communities, particularly Congolese Tutsi, remain contested.

A warning that history could repeat itself

In an interview with the media, Mugesera said his analysis centres on the danger that hate speech, political exclusion, armed violence and impunity could create conditions for mass atrocities.

"Genocide is never an accident; it is prepared,” he writes.

He traces what he describes as a long historical process, examining the legacy of colonial racial theories, post-independence political structures, the persecution of Banyamulenge and other Rwandophone communities, and disputes over citizenship and political recognition.

ALSO READ: Nduhungirehe warns against silence amid genocide ideology, Tutsi persecution in DR Congo

The publication argues that anti-Tutsi ideology in DR Congo has evolved over decades, with Tutsi populations increasingly portrayed in political discourse as outsiders, demographic threats or proxies of Rwanda.

According to the authors, such narratives have turned citizenship into a political battleground, while grievances over land, resources and representation have sometimes been framed in ethnic and racial terms.

The contributors identify the crisis as fundamentally political, pointing to what they describe as the failure of successive Congolese governments to establish an inclusive national framework that recognises the rights of all citizens.

The AFC-M23 question

One of the most contentious aspects of Mugesera’s analysis is his assessment of the AFC/M23 movement.

ALSO READ: AFC/M23 vows to defend civilians against ‘Kinshasa’s terror’

He argues that the movement could potentially play a role in stopping what he describes as an ongoing genocidal process against Congolese Tutsi.

His argument raises a further question: can such a process be stopped without political will from the central government in Kinshasa?

Mugesera points to the movement’s stated reasons for taking up arms and its control of territory in eastern DR Congo, where he argues that security and some economic and social activities have improved.

These assessments are made against the backdrop of a highly contested conflict, with the Congolese and Rwandan governments, regional actors and international organisations offering competing accounts of the violence and the role of armed groups.

The publication therefore goes beyond recounting the conflict, challenging readers to consider what happens when political solutions repeatedly fail.

Four possible futures for DR Congo

Mugesera examines four possible scenarios for the future of DR Congo.

One is a federal system that would give regions such as Kivu, Kasai and Katanga greater autonomy while remaining part of a state governed from Kinshasa.

Another draws on the example of South Sudan, with Kivu potentially becoming a separate state.

A third considers the breakup of Yugoslavia, while the fourth draws a comparison with Eritrea’s separation from Ethiopia.

The scenarios underscore the depth of the political crisis and the questions surrounding the country’s future. They also reinforce a central message of the publication: "waiting for another catastrophe is not a solution.”

A challenge to conventional narratives

Another major contribution comes from Minister Jean-Damascène Bizimana, whose article examines Belgian academic and political commentator Filip Reyntjens and his influence on interpretations of Rwanda and the wider Great Lakes Region.

Bizimana questions the boundary between academic research and political activism, examining Reyntjens’ writings and public positions. He also discusses a September 2025 decision by Belgium’s Egmont Institute to cancel a conference at which Reyntjens was expected to present his book Modern Rwanda: A Political History.

The special issue thus enters a broader debate over who writes the history of the Great Lakes, whose accounts are accepted as authoritative and how narratives about the region are constructed.

The contributors argue that the exclusion of Rwandophone Tutsi from full citizenship and political participation cannot be explained solely by geography, resources or colonial borders.

Instead, they point to what they describe as a long-standing pattern of political exclusion.

The publication also examines the consequences of the FDLR’s activities, an armed group whose origins are linked to individuals involved in the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda, and its alleged role in sustaining anti-Tutsi ideology in eastern DR Congo.

For the contributors, this history matters because they argue that unresolved ideology can persist even as the conflict and the actors involved evolve.

That, they contend, is what makes the publication more than a historical account: it is a warning about the risks of leaving longstanding grievances and political exclusion unresolved.

It also invites debate about what a lasting political solution to the Great Lakes crisis should look like.

The publication is scheduled to be launched on Friday, September 25, at Kigali Public Library.

TAGS:

, Rwandophone Tutsi persecution, Genocide risks, AFC/M23, Banyamulenge, FDLR, Citizenship, Great Lakes Region, Antoine Mugesera, Revue Dialogue, Jean-Damascène Bizimana, Peace in DR Congo