The sight of empty milk shops in Kigali should not come as a surprise. Rwanda has experienced milk shortages during prolonged dry spells before, yet each episode seems to find the country responding after the problem has already reached consumers.

The latest disruption is a reminder that drought is no longer simply a seasonal inconvenience for the dairy sector, but a predictable risk that requires predictable planning.

When farmers in Nyagatare and Gicumbi report cows producing a fraction of their normal yields because of inadequate feed and water, the problem is clearly not at the milk shop. By then, the damage has already occurred several weeks or months earlier on the farm.

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We therefore need to move from crisis management to drought preparedness. The priority should be fodder. Farmers should be supported to produce, conserve, and store enough animal feed before the dry season begins.

This means expanding access to baling and silage equipment, affordable finance, and appropriate storage facilities. Fodder reserves should be treated much like strategic reserves built up during periods of plenty and available when production falls.

Water requires the same approach. If dams and other sources routinely dry up, communities cannot wait until cattle are already thirsty to start looking for alternatives. The planned development of boreholes is welcome, but water infrastructure should be mapped and prioritised in areas with the highest livestock concentration and greatest drought risk.

The government and dairy processors should also improve early-warning systems. Milk collection data can provide an immediate signal when production begins falling. If national and district authorities know weeks in advance that milk volumes are declining, they can coordinate feed supplies, water provision and distribution before urban shops run dry.

There is also a role for the private sector. Dairy processors, feed companies, financial institutions, and farmer cooperatives should develop seasonal contingency plans together. Farmers should not be left individually negotiating for scarce fodder when everyone knows the dry season is approaching.

The planned expansion of milk collection centres and cooling capacity is important, but infrastructure alone will not solve the problem. Rwanda can build the capacity to collect milk, but that capacity is of little use when drought leaves cows producing far less.

The country's ambition to more than double milk production by 2029 is commendable. But achieving it will require more than better breeds and more collection centres. It will require a dairy system capable of withstanding increasingly unpredictable weather.