Burundian media on Tuesday, September 1, reported the arrest of a man identified as Bonheur Dieudonne, whom Burundian police presented as a Rwandan national recruited by RED-Tabara in eastern DR Congo.

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The 27-year-old claimed that he left in Kigali with about 100 other people to join RED-Tabara in DR Congo's South Kivu province. Beyond his account, however, Burundian authorities did not provide evidence of the allegations that the man was Rwandan or that he had been recruited into the Burundian rebel group by Rwanda.

The police did not present evidence showing when or where he joined the group, his alleged activities there, or any link between RED-Tabara and Rwanda.

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Analysts following Rwanda-Burundi relations said presenting one alleged recruit does little to substantiate Gitega's accusation that Kigali supports RED-Tabara.

They argue that the presentation of the individual appears aimed at building a narrative in which Rwanda is portrayed as backing Burundian armed groups, potentially providing Gitega with justification for its increasingly confrontational position towards Kigali.

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'Accusation in a mirror'

Albert Rudatsimburwa, a political analyst, said the latest claim appears to be an "accusation in a mirror”, a manipulative propaganda technique in which someone falsely accuses their target of wrongdoing, claiming to be the victims.

He noted that Burundi chose to respond to the scrutiny of its own military presence in eastern DR Congo by portraying Rwanda as the force behind a Burundian armed group.

He questioned the evidentiary value of presenting one alleged RED-Tabara recruit without showing the group’s current strength, location, or military activities.

"Showing one guy like that, where is the evidence of RED-Tabara even still existing?” Rudatsimburwa said.

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He contrasted the claim with Burundi’s own presence in eastern DR Congo, where, he said, Burundian troops have been captured, killed and seen operating in uniform alongside forces including the FDLR, a UN- and US-sanctioned militia that poses a security threat to Rwanda.

"They know that they are being accused of being in Congo alongside FDLR and Wazalendo,” he said. "So, it is a way to fight Rwanda indirectly.”

Rudatsimburwa also cautioned against equating RED-Tabara with the FDLR, saying the two groups have fundamentally different backgrounds and stated objectives.

"RED-Tabara, even if they exist for those who say it exists, it is there because they want to restore democracy, the Arusha Agreement,” he said. "The FDLR is different. It’s a very known genocidal force that is on record, and that is still there.”

He noted that the presentation of the alleged recruit was an attempt to tell the international community that Rwanda is behind RED-Tabara. Rudatsimburwa said, however, that without additional evidence, that Gitega was unlikely to convince any international actor that Kigali is behind the group.

"Whatever they claim, they don't provide enough evidence to substantiate their accusations,” he said.

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A wider pattern

Veteran diplomat Ambassador Joseph Mutaboba said the RED-Tabara allegation fits a broader pattern in which Burundi repeatedly associates Rwanda with its security and political difficulties.

He pointed to previous accusations linking Rwanda to RED-Tabara attacks, security incidents in Bujumbura and developments in eastern DR Congo, including allegations by President Evariste Ndayishimiye that Rwanda was preparing to attack Burundi.

"If Burundi possesses credible evidence that any state is arming, training or directing RED-Tabara, it should submit that evidence to an agreed regional or international verification mechanism,” Mutaboba said.

"Serious accusations require independently examinable facts. Repetition is not evidence, and political certainty is not a substitute for verification.”

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The analysts said the latest allegation risks further worsening Rwanda-Burundi relations, already strained by disagreements over Burundi’s military role in eastern DR Congo, and its unilateral decision to close the border with Rwanda.

They argued that a credible regional peace process must address all major actors involved in the conflict, including Burundi and the FDLR, rather than focusing selectively on accusations against Rwanda.

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Teddy Mazina, a Burundian journalist and political analyst, told The New Times on Thursday that authorities had used similar public presentations before, questioning why a group allegedly operating as an armed force in eastern DR Congo would be represented mainly through individuals presented after their capture, rather than through verifiable evidence of its activities and organisation.

"If there were a force which was a problem for the security of the region, they would show how and where it operates,” Mazina said, arguing that the repeated invocation of RED-Tabara has become part of a wider narrative portraying Rwanda as the external source of Burundi’s problems.

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Rwanda has for years denied any links to RED-Tabara, a Burundian armed group that emerged after Burundi’s 2015 political crisis and has operated from eastern DR Congo.

Alex Mvuka, a Congolese analyst, similarly described the latest presentation as an attempt to create a counternarrative to revelations made by former FDLR members about Burundi's involvement in the conflict in eastern DR Congo.

According to Mvuka, Burundi needs such a narrative to justify its military presence in eastern DR Congo and its alliance with Kinshasa.

"Those are very baseless accusations,” he said, arguing that presenting a single person’s testimony without supporting evidence does not establish Rwanda’s involvement.

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He further noted that the latest accusation should instead be viewed against the backdrop of Burundi’s continued military involvement in eastern DR Congo.

Burundian forces are fighting alongside the Congolese army (FARDC), the Kinshasa-backed FDLR genocidal militia, mercenaries, Wazalendo and other local militias in the war with the AFC/M23 movement. The coalition has been accused of targeting Banyamulenge and other Tutsi communities.

"What we saw in Bonheur is a fabrication to support the idea that they are there to pursue Burundian armed groups, and that these Burundian armed groups are supported by Rwanda,” he said.

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He argued that Burundi’s involvement has become a major complication for regional peace efforts, particularly because Bujumbura is not a party to the Washington and Doha peace processes, despite being a major party in the war in eastern DR Congo.

"Burundi continues to be a spoiler for the peace talks,” Mvuka said.