The Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Meteo Rwanda) has released the seasonal rainfall forecast predicting below normal and normal rainfall in September to December.
At a news conference yesterday at the Rwanda Environment Management Authority (REMA), in Kigali, the agency released statistical and dynamical analysis done for the different zones of Rwanda.
The rainfall distribution is divided into two categories which are: below normal and normal rainfall according to the cumulative range of rainfall amounts during September to December 2016 rainfall season.
The Eastern Province districts of Ngoma, Gatsibo, Bugesera, Kirehe, Rwamagana, Kayonza and Nyagatare, Kigali City (Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Gasabo) and Southern Province (Kamonyi, Muhanga, Ruhango, Nyanza, Huye, Gisagara) are expected to have normal to below normal rain season (450mm to less than 350mm) in most places.
The Western Province (Rusizi, Nyamasheke, Karongi, Rutsiro, Rubavu, Nyabihu and Ngororero), Southern Province (Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru) and the Northern Province (Rulindo, Musanze, Burera, Gicumbi and Gakenke) are expected to have normal rainfall in many places (from above 350-450 mm).
John Ntaganda, the Director General of Rwanda Meteorology Agency, said the normal to below normal rainfall expected during the September to December rainfall season may cause unfavorable conditions for crop yield. He advised those with activities that may be affected as a result to put in place both preventive and mitigative strategies.
The forecast information came after regional and international climate scientists involved in prediction of seasonal rainfall converged in Nairobi at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC), from August 15 -26, to analyse and deliberate on the historical data of rainfall and temperature from across ten regional countries (Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda).
Several world research centres were also represented and after deliberations scientists came up with a consensus forecast for the IGAD region and the affiliated countries of Rwanda, Tanzania and Burundi.
For Rwanda, they used historical rainfall and temperature data for up to 45 years from different stations across the country with sea surface temperatures from global oceans (Indian, Pacific and the Atlantic).
“This rainfall outlook will be supplemented by daily updates of different timescales: 24-hours, 5-days and 10-days forecasts, regular monthly updates and advisories issued by Rwanda Meteorology Agency,” said Ntaganda.