New york – The world is facing a wine shortage, with global consumer demand already significantly outstripping supply, a report has warned.The research by America’s Morgan Stanley financial services firm says demand for wine “exceeded supply by 300 million cases in 2012’.It describes this as “the deepest shortfall in over 40 years of records”. Last year, production also dropped to its lowest levels in more than four decades.Global production has been steadily declining since its peak in 2004, when supply outweighed demand by about 600 million cases.The report by Morgan Stanley’s analysts Tom Kierath and Crystal Wang says global wine consumption has been rising since 1996 (except a drop in 2008-09), and presently stands at about three billion cases per year. At the same time, there are currently more than one million wine producers worldwide, making some 2.8 billion cases each year.The authors predict that - in the short-term – “inventories will likely be reduced as current consumption continues to be predominantly supplied by previous vintages”.And as consumption then inevitably turns to the 2012 vintage, the authors say they “expect the current production shortfall to culminate in a significant increase in export demand, and higher prices for exports globally”.
