Mohamed A. El-Erian

The dialectic of global trade policy

MUNICH – There is a subtle yet important change occurring in how political leaders think about international trade, including how to remedy long-standing problems. It results from a key distinction between the “what” of trade (where there is relatively broad-based agreement among...

Friday, February 22, 2019, 1:59 AM

Why Italy is the latest to question policy orthodoxy

PARIS – Global markets, policymakers, and risk managers are watching the budget skirmish between Italy’s government and the European Commission closely. The episode highlights a growing tendency among governments in both advanced and emerging economies to question economic policy...

Sunday, October 28, 2018, 10:18 PM

Can Turkey rewrite the crisis-management rules?

LAGUNA BEACH – Whether by accident or design, Turkey is trying to rewrite the chapter on crisis management in the emerging-market playbook. Rather than opting for interest-rate hikes and an external funding anchor to support domestic policy adjustments, the government has adopted a mix of...

Monday, August 20, 2018, 12:12 AM

Why markets and political scientists disagree on the G7

WASHINGTON, DC – To say that this month’s summit of G7 leaders in Canada was an unusual one would be an understatement. A traditionally friendly and predictable gathering of like-minded countries was marred by finger-pointing and disagreement, resulting in an inability to achieve...

Wednesday, June 20, 2018, 12:18 AM

Managing the risks of a rising dollar

NEWPORT BEACH – Argentinian President Mauricio Macri’s government has asked the International Monetary Fund for a loan that it hopes can stem a peso rout that has driven up interest rates, will slow the economy, and threatens the reform program. This reversal of fortune for the economy...

Monday, May 14, 2018, 8:02 PM

The global trade game

History is less likely than game theory to provide useful insights into where the latest trade dispute between the US and China may be heading. The question, ultimately, is whether new tariffs will eventually lead to a more cooperative game, or to a competitive one in which everyone loses....

Monday, April 9, 2018, 1:46 AM

Working toward the next economic paradigm

Building support for a new unifying economic paradigm to replace the discredited Washington Consensus will be an analytically challenging, politically demanding, and time-consuming process. In the meantime, both economists and policymakers must ensure that the existing paradigm doesn’t cause...

Friday, March 2, 2018, 12:00 AM

Working toward the next economic paradigm

Building support for a new unifying economic paradigm to replace the discredited Washington Consensus will be an analytically challenging, politically demanding, and time-consuming process. In the meantime, both economists and policymakers must ensure that the existing paradigm doesn’t cause...

Thursday, March 1, 2018, 12:00 AM

Financial investors' wish list for 2018

NEWPORT BEACH – If financial investors were to write letters to Santa Claus this Christmas, they would probably be tempted to ask for the continuation of the unusual combination of factors that has dominated over the last year: ultra-low market volatility, booming financial-asset values,...

Monday, December 18, 2017, 12:00 AM

The lost lesson of the financial crisis

LONDON – Ten years ago this month, the French bank BNP Paribas decided to limit investors’ access to the money they had deposited in three funds. It was the first loud signal of the financial stress that would, a year later, send the global economy into a tailspin. Yet the massive...

Friday, August 18, 2017, 12:00 AM

An IMF bridge to somewhere for Greece?

ZURICH – The International Monetary Fund has resurrected an old technique – commonly used in the 1980s during the Latin American debt crisis – that would allow Greece to avoid a payment default next month on debt owed to European creditors. The reprieve also gives the IMF and its...

Thursday, June 22, 2017, 12:00 AM

An opportunity for Egypt and the IMF

LAGUNA BEACH – The Egyptian authorities and International Monetary Fund staff have struck a deal. If the IMF Board agrees next month, Egypt will receive a $12 billion loan to support the implementation of economic reforms. The primary objective of the three-year program will be to unleash...

Tuesday, August 30, 2016, 12:00 AM

The Chinese economy's great wall

WASHINGTON, DC – The recent decline in China’s currency, the renminbi, which has fueled turmoil in Chinese stock markets and drove the government to suspend trading twice last week, highlights a major challenge facing the country: how to balance its domestic and international economic...

Tuesday, January 12, 2016, 12:00 AM

The great policy divergence

 Mohamed A. El-Erian Over the next few weeks, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are likely to put in place notably different policies. The Fed is set to raise interest rates for the first time in almost ten years. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to introduce additional...

Saturday, December 5, 2015, 12:00 AM

America’s education bubble

SAN FRANCISCO – One of the fundamental purposes of government is to advance important public goods. But, if not handled carefully, the pursuit of significant social goals can have unfortunate economic and financial consequences, sometimes even leading to systemic disruptions that undermine...

Tuesday, November 10, 2015, 12:00 AM

Governments' self-disruption challenge

Mohamed A. El-Erian LAGUNA BEACH – One of the most difficult challenges facing Western governments today is to enable and channel the transformative – and, for individuals and companies, self-empowering – forces of technological innovation. They will not succeed unless they become more open to...

Thursday, October 15, 2015, 12:00 AM

Governments' self-disruption challenge

Mohamed A. El-Erian LAGUNA BEACH – One of the most difficult challenges facing Western governments today is to enable and channel the transformative – and, for individuals and companies, self-empowering – forces of technological innovation. They will not succeed unless they become more open to...

Wednesday, October 14, 2015, 12:00 AM

Refugees and reform in Europe

LAGUNA BEACH – There is a simple truth beneath the growing human tragedy of Europe’s refugee crisis, and the European Union cannot address the massive influx of exhausted, desperate people in a manner compatible with its values unless governments and citizens acknowledge it. Simply put...

Tuesday, September 22, 2015, 12:00 AM

Oil's new normal

Mohamed A. El-Erian LAGUNA BEACH – Oil prices have been heading south again, with a barrel of US crude recently falling below $42 – the lowest level since March 2009, the nadir of the global financial crisis. And, while last year’s sharp price drop was heavily influenced by two large supply...

Saturday, August 15, 2015, 12:00 AM

The messy politics of economic divergence

Mohamed A. El-Erian Laguna Beach – The world is increasingly characterized by divergence – in economic performance, monetary policy, and thus in financial markets. Global divergence has already contributed to stock-market volatility, unprecedented declines in advanced economies’ government...

Tuesday, March 17, 2015, 12:00 AM

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